Monthly Market Update – March 2026

By Simmons Investment Advisors on April 1, 2026

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Headlines From Last Month:

• US stocks initially showed resilience, even with the conflict in Iran, albeit with increased volatility. As clarity involving when there might be resolution ebbed, volatility increased and stocks sold off. Surging oil prices weighed on investor sentiment. March was the weakest month in almost 4 years, including 5 consecutive down weeks.
  • The Nasdaq entered correction territory (down -10% from Oct 29^th) on March 26^th.
  • The Dow did so the following day.
• The Nikkei dropped -13.23% last month, now up only 1.44% for the year.
• Federal Reserve:
  • Left rates unchanged on March 18^th, as was anticipated amid growing concerns over how the war with Iran could affect the US economy.
  • Chairman Powell said that “In the near term, higher energy prices will push up overall inflation. But it’s too soon to know the scope and duration of the potential effects on the economy.”
• Iran:
  • Operation Epic Fury
  • The son of the former supreme leader killed at the onset of the US/Israeli attacks was named as the new supreme leader – Mojtaba Khamenei was selected by the Iranian clerical council.
  • Iran dismissed Trump’s 15-point ceasefire plan, countering with a 5-point proposal.  Their plan included reparations and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
• Government Shutdown:
  • The partial shutdown, which began on February 1^st, continues.
  • The lapse has largely impacted the Department of Homeland Security, including the Coast Guard, TSA, Secret Service, and ICE:
    • TSA agents were calling out sick, causing huge delays.
    • Trump sent ICE agents in to help get airline travelers thru the long lines.
  • President Trump signed an executive order on March 27^th directing the DHS to use alternative funds to pay TSA officers.
• The price of Oil (WTI spot) surged almost 51% in March, now up 76% in 2026, closing the month at $101.15 a barrel.
  • Restrictions at the Strait of Hormuz due to the conflict with Iran was the driver. It has disrupted energy production and brought traffic trying to pass through the Strait to a standstill, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil and gas supply passes.
  • Crude Oil traded as high as $119 a barrel on Sunday, March 8^th, but finished the following day in the $90’s after Trump suggested that the war with Iran wouldn’t last long. It spiked again on March 18^th after an attack on an Iranian gas field.
  • The national average price of gas per gallon hit $4.00, up over $1.00 from a month ago.
• Metals dropped sharply last month:
  • Gold (NY Spot) fell -11.57% but is still up 8.00% for the year. A three-week losing streak included its worst week since 1983.
  • Silver dropped -19.90%. Year-to-date, it is now up 4.90%.
• Mortgage Rates (30-year fixed, conforming) rose from below 6.00% to 6.55%.
• Sports:
  • Lou Holtz, the legendary Notre Dame football coach, passed away at the age of 89.
  • College basketball was in focus over the past 2 weeks with March Madness.
    • Heading into the Final Four on the men’s side, Illinois will play UConn and Michigan faces Arizona.
    • On the women’s side, it’s UConn vs South Carolina and UCLA vs Texas, all #1 seeds from their bracket and the same Final Four as last year.
  • The 2026 MLB season began on March 25^th, with NY Yankees beating the SF Giants.
  • Alex Ovechkin became the 2^nd NHL player with 1,000 career goals – Gretzky is the other.
• Other News:
  • The 98^th Academy Awards took place on Sunday, March 15^th.
  • Legendary action hero Chuck Norris died at 86.

• Economic Data:
  • Q4 GDP was revised down from 1.4% to 0.7%, well below the expected 1.5% ⁽ⁱ⁾.
  • Employment/Unemployment:
    • US Nonfarm Payrolls unexpectedly fell by -92K in February, vs estimates for a rise of 50K ⁽ⁱ⁾.
    • Unemployment rose from 4.3% to 4.4%, vs estimates for no change ⁽ⁱ⁾.
  • Retail Sales rose 0.3% in January, as anticipated ⁽ⁱ⁾.
  • Inflation:
    • Consumer Price Index:
      • CPI rose 0.3% in February and 2.4% on an annual basis, both as expected ⁽ⁱ⁾.
      • Core CPI rose 0.2% and 2.5% annually, both as anticipated ⁽ⁱ⁾.
    • Producer Price Index:
      • PPI rose 0.7% in February, vs the expected rise of only 0.3%. On a 12-month basis, it increased 3.4% ⁽ⁱ⁾.
      • Core PPI (excludes food and energy) rose 0.5%, vs estimates for a rise of 0.3%, and up 3.9% year over year ⁽ⁱ⁾.
    • Personal-Consumption Expenditures Index:
      • PCE rose 0.3% in January and 2.8% from a year ago. Expectations were for 0.3% and 2.9% ⁽ⁱ⁾.
      • Core PCE (excludes food and energy prices) rose 0.4% for the month and 3.1% from a year ago, both as estimated ⁽ⁱ⁾.
    • Personal Income rose 0.4% in January, below estimates for 0.5% ⁽ⁱ⁾.
    • Personal Spending was up 0.4% for the month vs estimates for 0.3%⁽ⁱ⁾.

US Equities:

• Sector performance:
  • The Energy sector was the only positive sector in March, gaining 10.31%. Industrials was the weakest, losing -8.54%, followed by Health Care (-8.26%), Consumer Staples (-7.73%), Communication Services (-7.34%), Materials (-7.08%), Real Estate (-6.60%), Consumer Discretionary (-5.75%), Info Technology (-3.87%), Financials (-3.70%), and Utilities (-3.41%) ^(vii).
  • Year-to-date, Energy is up 37.24%, Materials by 9.30%, Utilities by 7.52%, Consumer Staples by 7.01%, Industrials by 4.30%, and Real Estate by 1.94%. On the downside, Financials are down -9.80%, Consumer Discretionary by -9.34%, Info Technology by -9.25%, Communication Services by -7.10%, and Health Care by -5.29% ^(vii).
• Growth vs. Value:
  • Growth (Russell 1000 Growth Index) lost -5.26% while Value (Russell 1000 Value Index) fell -5.01%. For the year, Growth is down -9.90% and Value is up 1.60%.
• Small-cap stocks (Russell 2000 Index) dropped -20% in March, down -15.20% in 2026.

• Monthly Performance, calculated on a price return basis:
  • Dow dropped -5.38%
  • S&P 500 fell -5.09%
  • Nasdaq lost -4.75%
• Year-to-date performance, calculated on a price return basis:
  • Dow is down -3.58%
  • S&P 500 is off -4.63%
  • Nasdaq is down -7.11%

US Fixed Income – Yields increased across the board in March:

• Yields on US Treasuries at the end of the month:
  • 1 year – 3.66% ^(iv)
  • 2 year – 3.79% ^(iv)
  • 10 year – 4.32% ^(iv)
• As a point of reference, at February month-end, yields were at:
  • 1 year – 3.48% ^(iv)
  • 2 year – 3.39% ^(iv)
  • 10 year – 3.96% ^(iv)

Regards,

Mike & Steve

DISCLOSURE: All data is as of previous month-end (March 31^st, 2026).  Sources include www.cnbc.com (i), https://www.cnn.com/business (ii), https://finance.yahoo.com (iii), other public websites, Hightower Advisors, LLC (iv), FactSet (v), Barron’s (vi) and www.spglobal.com (vii)