Monthly Market Update – November 2023

By Simmons Investment Advisors on December 1, 2023

Access PDF Here

Headlines From Last Month:

  • Q3 Earnings quarter is wrapping up with generally better-than-expected results.
  • Government shutdown was avoided as an agreement was made, funding the federal
    government through early next year.
  • The Israel-Gaza War:
    • The war entered its second month in early November.
    • Truces have been happening where Israeli hostages have been exchanged for aid, a cease-fire, and the release of Hamas Members.
  • The historic United Auto Workers strike (which began on September 15th) against the
    Big Three auto makers, ended as union members voted to accept all three deals:
    • The 4-year contracts (set to expire in 2028) include the biggest wage increases
      in decades, on top of cost-of-living adjustments.
    • Raises in the range of 25% will add significant costs for the auto companies.
  • Oil Prices continued to fall, down -6.25% in November, at a 4-month low after hitting a 12-month peak September. Oil is down -19.1% from that September 27th high.
  • Gold has rallied this year due to the geopolitical tensions:
    • Year-to-date, it’s up 13.05%.
    • Most of that move came from the October 5th level, up 10.57% since then.
  • The Federal Reserve:
    • Left their target rate unchanged following their meeting on November 1st.
    • Chairman Powell declined to give any indication that the FOMC was finished raising rates but did suggest that higher rates have tightened financial conditions.
    • This was the 2nd consecutive meeting where they left rates unchanged.
    • Minutes from the meeting indicated that FOMC members believe it’s appropriate to leave rates at a restrictive level until inflation is clearly moving lower to their target.
    • Analysts now believe that the FOMC is done raising rates, following the key inflation data below, and are now focused on the timing and pace of rate cuts.
    • Their next meeting is December 13th.
  • Economic Data:
    • Employment/Unemployment:
      • US nonfarm payrolls increased by 150K vs the expected 170K, a sharp decline from September’s increase of 297K.
      • The unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 3.9% vs the expectation for no change.
    • Inflation:
      • Consumer Price Index:
        • CPI increased 3.2% (less than the expected increase of 3.7%) and was flat compared to the previous month (expected to rise by 0.1%), led by lower energy prices (i).
        • Core CPI (excludes food and energy costs) rose 0.2% from the prior month and 4.0% year over year, versus expectations for increases of 0.3% and 4.1% (i).
      • Producer Price Index:
        • PPI fell by -0.5% (the biggest monthly drop since April 2020), well below the expected increase of 0.1% (i).
      • PCE (Personal-Consumption Expenditures Index) rose 0.2%, and up 3.5% on a year-over-year basis, both in-line with estimates (i).
    • Retail Sales fell -0.1% in October (i) (after rising 0.7% in Sept and 0.6% in August), compared to estimates for a decline of -0.3%. Year-over-year, sales rose 2.5% (i).
    • 3rd quarter GDP (Gross Domestic Product) was revised up from 4.9% to 5.2%, versus the expected upward revision to 5.0% (i).

US Equities:

  • Stocks rallied sharply in November on optimism that the Fed is done raising interest rates following optimism around cooling inflation, with the Dow finishing the month at a 2023 high.
  • Historically (going back to 1945), November is a strong month with an average gain of 1.47% and positive returns two-thirds of the time (v). Combined with December, stocks have finished positive 75% of the time, with an average gain of 3.0% (v).
  • Recent economic data and 3rd quarter earnings has sent a positive message to the markets.
  • Growth vs. Value for November:
    • Growth (Russell 1000 Growth Index) rallied 10.78% while Value (Russell 1000 Value Index) gained 7.24% (iv).
    • Year-to-date, Growth is up 35.46% while Value is up 3.33% (iv).
  • The S&P 500 is now up 27.70% since the Oct ‘22 low, the Dow is up 25.19% from its Sept ’22 low, and the Nasdaq is up 39.29% from its Dec ’22 low.
  • From their recent lows (late October ’23), the S&P is up 11.28%, the Dow 11.13% and the Nasdaq 13.35%.
  • The S&P 500 is 5.01% from its all-time high, set back in late 2021, the Dow is 1.99% from its peak, and the Nasdaq is 11.40% from its high.

  • Monthly performance, calculated on a price return basis:
    • Dow rose 8.77%
    • S&P 500 gained 8.92%
    • Nasdaq rallied 10.70%
  • Year to date performance, also calculated on a price return basis:
    • Dow is up 8.46%
    • S&P 500 is up 18.97%
    • Nasdaq is up 35.92%

US Fixed Income:

  • US Treasury yields dropped sharply in November.
  • The 10-year US Treasury finished November at 4.34%, well off the October 19th level of 4.98%, its highest level since 2007 (iii).
  • On November 10th, Moody’s cut the outlook on the US government from stable to negative but maintained its top rating of Aaa on US credit (vi).
  • The rate on 30-year mortgages has declined over the past 5-6 weeks after peaking above 8.25%. The average is now around 7.65%, which is still much higher than a year ago when it was at 6.75% (ii).

  • Yields on US Treasuries dropped from October month-end levels:
    • 1 year – 5.12% (iv)
    • 2 year – 4.70% (iv)
    • 10 year – 4.34% (iv)
  • As a point of reference, at October month-end, yields were at:
    • 1 year – 5.43% (iv)
    • 2 year – 5.06% (iv)
    • 10 year – 4.90% (iv)

Regards,

Mike & Steve

DISCLOSURE: All data is as of previous month-end (October 31, 2023).  Sources include www.cnbc.com (i), https://www.cnn.com/business (ii), https://finance.yahoo.com (iii), other public websites, Hightower Advisors, LLC (iv), FactSet (v), and  Barron’s (vi).


Simmons Investment Advisors is a group comprised of investment professionals registered with Hightower Advisors, LLC, an SEC registered investment adviser. Some investment professionals may also be registered with Hightower Securities, LLC (member FINRA and SIPC). Advisory services are offered through Hightower Advisors, LLC. Securities are offered through Hightower Securities, LLC.

This is not an offer to buy or sell securities, nor should anything contained herein be construed as a recommendation or advice of any kind. Consult with an appropriately credentialed professional before making any financial, investment, tax or legal decision. No investment process is free of risk, and there is no guarantee that any investment process or investment opportunities will be profitable or suitable for all investors. Past performance is neither indicative nor a guarantee of future results. You cannot invest directly in an index.

These materials were created for informational purposes only; the opinions and positions stated are those of the author(s) and are not necessarily the official opinion or position of Hightower Advisors, LLC or its affiliates (“Hightower”). Any examples used are for illustrative purposes only and based on generic assumptions. All data or other information referenced is from sources believed to be reliable but not independently verified. Information provided is as of the date referenced and is subject to change without notice. Hightower assumes no liability for any action made or taken in reliance on or relating in any way to this information. Hightower makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information, for statements or errors or omissions, or results obtained from the use of this information. References to any person, organization, or the inclusion of external hyperlinks does not constitute endorsement (or guarantee of accuracy or safety) by Hightower of any such person, organization or linked website or the information, products or services contained therein.

Click here for definitions of and disclosures specific to commonly used terms.

Learn More about Simmons Investment Advisors

Simmons Logo

Legal & Privacy
Web Accessibility Policy

Form Client Relationship Summary ("Form CRS") is a brief summary of the brokerage and advisor services we offer.
HTA Client Relationship Summary
HTS Client Relationship Summary

Securities offered through Hightower Securities, LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC, Hightower Advisors, LLC is a SEC registered investment adviser. brokercheck.finra.org

©2025 Hightower Advisors. All Rights Reserved.